The recovery will be slow around the world, but we are in a state of recovery anyway. The biggest difference in days will be the country to bear the burden of the reconstruction of torn tissue financially. In this edition to be prepared for surprises and trends contrary to the expectations of many, they provide. Be warned, however, to digest this information, you may think I'm totally off my rocker in some of my predictions, but remember, I was almost entirely proper beneficiaries last year and losers. I'll start with the evaluation of individual countries and to rationalize my discussion with the industry to see. Happy New Year and good health in 2011.
State United States
U.S. scientists are forecasting growth of 3.4% in the U.S. this year. I disagree. The growth of private labels in the United States in 2011, peaking at 1.5% but is likely to grow 0.9% by year end December 31, 2011. America is on the rise after a strong end of 2010, data from retail rose 3.1% in 2009, but believes that the expectation was 3.4% in November and the figures have been filled with 2.1% more than in December. This trend should have been removed in order to justify a complete optimism about stronger growth. Economic growth and sales continue to undermine the inventory cycle from the top.
At the same time, households and banks continue to set their own budgets and keep an eye on credit growth sustainable in the long term devastating 1.5%. Banks loosen credit in the third quarter of 2012.
In addition, the dark cloud of unemployment still hovers heavily on the U.S. horizon. Therefore, in the profits of the leading companies in the first quarter, then high unemployment and falling consumer confidence and wreak havoc on the increased momentum of corporate profits. Actual unemployment in the U.S. fell in December, he created 103,000 jobs last month, well above the figure of 200,000 per month is required to support sustainable growth and improved economic conditions. Our average pace of job creation last year was 94,000 per month. In addition, 8.4 million jobs paid during the period of 3 years, but only 1.1 million were added in the private sector. The expansion of the state does not contribute to economic recovery, as it has done historically, or will happen in the future.
In fact, the government has also cut 20,000 jobs last month. In December, the employment rate up to 2016 to replace the loss of jobs and ultimately create a balance in the market. Since that date, 6.76 million Americans have stopped looking for work and, in a recent poll say they do not see the first half of next year. For those who do not receive unemployment benefits, and those who have renounced their use of all of our real national unemployment rate is closer to 10.8% compared with government figures of 9.4%. But the U.S. recovery is faster than the 2016, I expect acceptable level of employment at the end of 2012. But we expect a decline of 5.8% of the average wage $ 50,303 and $ 47,382 for the time being.
Collision CHINA
continuing conflict with China, exacerbated by U.S. economic growth. Moreover, the difference of political ideologies, the following factors increase the tension between the two nations. First, the rise of China is increasingly linked to the loss of jobs for ordinary Americans and a growing threat to American Power. Second, monetary policy in China, which aims to keep the yuan undervalued against the U.S. dollar continues to worsen trade relations between the two countries and the protectionist legislation in the United States is growing. Transition Yuan (Renminbi) global currency of international trade has already begun. It has launched a business in the United States. Thirdly, the Chinese military training in the population of the Pacific has received the U.S. trade and bodies, angry, and daggers. J-20, a new Chinese stealth fighter has just made its debut in the world.
In response to the phase of U.S. military exercises in the region open their doors for an economic weapon. In addition to continuing reluctance of China to tighten pressure on Iran while continuing to develop its energy will continue to damage relations between the United States.
China's economy to see growth of 8.4% of GDP, but the look of hostility between the Communist Party and a growing wave of young intellectuals of the Ministry of Interior who disagree with the current order. The United States accuses of this movement. Chinese engineer slowdown in Asian markets.
ASIA
Uzbekistan will lead Asia in economic growth this year with an increase of 8.5%, followed by China and India, with a GDP of 8.2% and we see inflation in India begins to decline normal levels last year 10% to about 6.4%. Afghanistan has a prominent place fourth in Asia with my forecast of a 7.2% growth this year, followed by Sri Lanka to 6.6%, Indonesia 6%, 5.5% in Kazakhstan. Australia is a safe place to save money because it would achieve growth of 2.6% this year.
Middle East and Africa
This forecast area bearing the greatest surprises for all. Ethiopia carry the torch and the Middle East and North Africa with a stable of 10% of GDP this year from 7.1% in Tanzania, Angola was 7%, 6% in Iraq, Lebanon $ 5.8 %, although the government to close last week and Syria is 4.6%. Gulf remains firm on average 3% of GDP, but the benefit should be made to comply with the above countries.
EUROPE
Europe is a battered child who need a lot of rehabilitation for the next five years. Will show the least impressive progress in the North American side, but the peloton will head to Russia with the improvement of 4% of GDP last year. Ukraine will be good in the wake of Russia with 3.9% of GDP, followed by Turkey at 3.6%, 3.4% in Poland, Estonia 3.2%, 3% in Latvia, Lithuania 2.9 %. Greece will play the biggest role in the crushing of the European economy as a whole with a negative growth of -3.5%, Portugal will play second anchor with a negative growth of -1%. Germany, Holland, France and Switzerland will be faster with a GDP figure of a model of persistence between growth of 1% to 1.6%.
LATIN AMERICA
Chile will be the champion of the fastest growing economies in Latin America, but less than Brazil, it exceeds a growth of 1.2% to 5.7% by the end of the year. Brazil will grow in second place with 4.5%, followed by Colombia with 4.4%, but drew with Paraguay and Peru for second place. Colombia will grow at the same pace as Uruguay.
Mexico develop its economy by 3.5% by midyear, but milder in response to slowing U.S. growth to 3% by December 31.
Overall world GDP growth will be strong and promising 4%, while world trade growth will exceed 6% to 6.3%. This can be attributed to increased trade with emerging markets like India, North Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe and parts of Latin America.
Central Banking
Western banks continue to lose jobs in the middle restrictive fiscal policy in these areas, while China and Hong Kong are expected to increase their numbers in the three quarters of its banks. The loans were reduced by an overall increase of 1.3% of loans in the United States. industry's strength - low
Real Estate
The worst may be over for this sector, but the recovery of pre-2006-level is still a lack of good three years. Commercial rents would fall into all categories of industry in the U.S. hit hardest, and sites selling the least affected. In parts of Europe and commercial property prices will fall further 15% and house prices in the U.S. will slide another 7%. Industrial Strength - Lower
Travel
The travel industry will increase by 5% in international tourist travel, France will see the biggest gains of visitors. Leisure travel will continue to rise faster than business travel, I expect to travel on business rates will be at least 3 years before returning to pre-2008 levels. Revenue per available room in the U.S. will increase by at least 6.7% this year takes a dominant position in all other countries. Industrial Strength - Good
Health Care
Global health spending as a percentage of gross domestic product will rise by 9.9%, while investments in the United States is expected to almost 16.2% of GDP, the numbers much faster than anywhere else in the world of health care costs will increase, because the sweeping legislation passed last year.
Luxury
The cost of luxury goods, an increase of 4%. Industrial Power - Good
Agriculture and Food
We hope that all food prices increased by 5% this year because of supply disruptions and Regulation Department of Health. Wheat prices would increase by about 8%. The price of sugar fell by 10%, coffee prices fell by 5%. Good news for coffee lovers. strength of the industry - Slight
Entertainment
TV companies and movie experience will be 5% and 7% increase in demand this year, once again, taken the music to digital music and mere.5% increase. Operators are likely to find work in 2011, as the musicians. Industrial Strength - Mild
Information Technology
In addition, the industry's most stable conclude in 2011. equipment purchases were down 7% versus 10%, but remain strong throughout the year. software services rose 4%, while IT spending will increase to 4.6% of the total capitalization of the industry $ 2 billion. Industrial Strength - Strong
CONCLUSION
I made a bold and sometimes controversial perhaps greater than expected. Next year we will not have its challenges, as in every year. In some cases, in 2011 some of us may feel concerned about the uncertainty that surely face in trying to make sense of all the predictions of "experts" for the future. Do not forget, however, that the leader is essential to listen and consider all views, while still being true to ourselves, our values, beliefs and focusing on the strengths of business. It is now well established for us so that we can move forward until the leaves are realistic expectations for change and the dust finally settles fatal crisis. As I started getting all this information to you is a wish that I could, at least in the current practice of base is that we look at the changing world, and exploring the horizons of this indicator is to come.
The war erupted in 2011, no doubt, but not a war fought with conventional weapons or missiles. This will be a war of ideologies that will test the country's constitution on earth. It will test the willingness of each person who wishes to acquire basic knowledge and clarity of what will become of our world. The answer is not to dig their heels on the floor and wait for another storm to come. The answer is venturing into the unknown and siphon the best possible knowledge of the resources around us to make an informed sense, realistic and common-law finally put the wheels of the global community. None of us has achieved greatness was on the porch waiting for someone to say the coast is clear. For I dare say that the coast is what we do, after all, our coasts.
But before making a decision, you must have the knowledge, skill, patience and determination to succeed and a possible storm ahead.
I wish you a blessed new year of the 2011th Good luck to you in a forge.
Merahs Diab holds an MBA from Miami University and holds a Bachelor of Science George Mason University. It is often a speaker on various topics related to operations management and organizational behavior and has written numerous works in economics, organizational efficiency, marketing and business decision-making. He is the founder of DCG Advisors, a firm of management consulting boutique that helps small and medium-sized enterprises, capital, profit, restructuring, virtual modeling and in-depth analysis.
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